Asia Communique — 10 Aug 2025
India claims S‑400 downed Pak jets | Tariffs freeze India‑US arms deals | Nvidia chip security questioned | Solomon Islands bars powers from Pacific Forum |
Hello from Taipei.
First, I wrote a new commentary for S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS) in Singapore on Taiwan’s drone program. Full text here. I am now an independent analyst, still based in Taiwan, for now.
Taiwan’s journalism and media sector has faced a wave of layoffs driven by budget cuts and internal political strife. Over the coming months, I’ll be embarking on a new professional direction.
This week’s Asia Communique follows a series of military exercises, war‑game revelations and diplomatic tussles that underscore the region’s growing security competition.
Below are the headlines; scroll down for context.
Headlines
Simulated blockade shows Taiwan’s neighbors would rely on Singapore. A recent war‑game that modelled a Chinese air‑sea blockade around Taiwan found that Southeast Asian countries would depend on Singapore’s discrete security footprint and airlift capacity to evacuate their nationals.
Indian Air Chief claims S‑400 shot down Pakistani jets; Islamabad calls it ‘comical’. India’s Air Chief Marshal A.P. Singh said his forces shot down five Pakistani fighter jets and a large early‑warning aircraft during May clashes using its Russian‑made S‑400 system; Pakistan’s defense minister dismissed the claims as fiction.
Tariffs stall India’s purchases of U.S. weapons. New Delhi has paused plans to buy Stryker armored vehicles, Javelin missiles and P‑8I maritime patrol aircraft after President Trump’s 25 % tariffs on Indian goods raised tensions, cancelling Defense Minister Rajnath Singh’s U.S. trip.
North Korea dismantles propaganda loudspeakers amid thaw. Pyongyang is taking down loudspeakers along the demilitarized zone after South Korea’s new government switched off its own broadcasts, signalling a tentative easing of tensions.
Nvidia faces security scrutiny in China. China’s state media demanded “convincing security proofs” for Nvidia’s H20 AI chip amid worries about back‑door access; regulators summoned the company and asked it to comply with Chinese law.
Russia and China plan joint naval patrols. After live‑fire drills in the Sea of Japan, Russian and Chinese naval vessels will form a task group to conduct patrol missions in the Asia‑Pacific, rehearsing coordination and signalling deterrence.
Pakistan says security forces killed 33 militants crossing from Afghanistan. Islamabad accused the “Indian‑sponsored” fighters of attempting to infiltrate from Afghanistan and said weapons were seized; India denied supporting militants.
Thai‑Cambodian ceasefire tested by landmine blast. Three Thai soldiers, one of whom lost a foot, were injured by a landmine while patrolling the border days after a ceasefire ended the worst fighting in years; ASEAN observers will monitor the fragile truce.
Solomon Islands excludes major powers from the Pacific Islands Forum. Prime Minister Jeremiah Manele said 21 donor countries, including the United States, China and Taiwan, will not be invited to September’s regional summit after Beijing pressured the host government to drop Taiwan.
Context
Singapore seen as evacuation lifeline in Taiwan blockade scenario
Participants in a recent war‑game simulated a full Chinese blockade of Taiwan, including cyberattacks, missile strikes and air‑sea cordons. The simulation concluded that Singapore’s discreet security presence and transport capacity would make it indispensable for evacuating foreign nationals from Taiwan and neighboring countries. Organizers said other Southeast Asian countries would lack the capacity or neutrality to mediate, highlighting how cross‑strait conflict could draw regional actors into crisis planning. Singapore’s role has been low‑key since it maintains a training presence on the island, but its ability to negotiate with Beijing and Taipei stood out during the exercise.
India‑Pakistan aerial clash claims stir controversy
Speaking on Aug 9, India’s Air Chief Marshal A.P. Singh publicly acknowledged that the Indian Air Force’s S‑400 air‑defense system shot down five Pakistani fighter jets and one airborne early‑warning aircraft during clashes in May. He said additional aircraft and F‑16s were destroyed on the ground; Pakistan’s defense minister Khawaja Asif called the assertion “comical” and urged independent verification. The extraordinary claim, which cannot be independently verified, signals heightened messaging ahead of Pakistan’s elections and underscores the hair‑trigger nature of the two nuclear‑armed neighbors’ rivalry.
U.S. tariffs derail India’s arms buys
Source: Getty Images
An exclusive Reuters report said India froze negotiations to purchase U.S. Stryker combat vehicles, Javelin anti‑tank missiles and additional Boeing P‑8I maritime aircraft after President Trump imposed 25 % tariffs on Indian exports. New Delhi cancelled Defense Minister Rajnath Singh’s planned trip to Washington and warned that the deals might not resume until tariff uncertainties are resolved. India insisted the decision was not a shift away from the United States but a pause to re‑evaluate supply chain risks; officials hinted they may reduce oil imports from Russia to appease Washington but still depend on Russian arms because of historical ties.
Japan‑Australia frigate pact deepens defense ties
Tokyo and Canberra signed a landmark A$10 billion (US$6.5 billion) agreement for Japan’s Mitsubishi Heavy Industries to build three improved Mogami‑class frigates in Japan and eight more in Australia. The vessels will be equipped with long‑range missiles and integrated combat systems, providing both navies with greater blue‑water capability. Analysts say the deal, which follows Japan’s lifting of arms‑export restrictions, represents a significant step in bilateral cooperation and signals willingness to work together to counter China’s maritime expansion.
Signs of de‑escalation on the Korean peninsula
Following South Korea’s decision to switch off anti‑North broadcasts, North Korea has begun dismantling its own propaganda loudspeakers along the demilitarized zone. The move comes ahead of the allies’ “Ulchi Freedom Shield” exercises; South Korea and the United States said they will delay half of their planned field drills due to extreme heat but will still practice responses to North Korean missile threats. Seoul hopes the gestures can reduce tensions, yet Pyongyang’s motives are unclear and previous attempts at détente have been short‑lived.
Tech security spotlight: Nvidia in China
The People’s Daily, a mouthpiece for China’s Communist Party, urged Nvidia to provide “convincing security proofs” to reassure buyers of its H20 artificial‑intelligence chip. China’s cyberspace regulator reportedly summoned the company after raising concerns about potential back‑doors and tracking functions. Nvidia denied the existence of back‑doors, but the spat illustrates Beijing’s growing scrutiny of foreign technology amid U.S. export controls.
China‑Russia naval cooperation expands
After conducting live‑fire drills in the Sea of Japan, Russian and Chinese naval vessels will form a task group for joint patrols in the Asia‑Pacific. The exercises, described by both sides as defensive, included anti‑submarine and air‑defense training. Analysts see the patrols as part of a broader pattern of military coordination designed to deter Western navies and signal the durability of the China–Russia partnership.
Insurgency and ceasefire challenges in South and Southeast Asia
Pakistan’s military said it killed 33 militants attempting to cross from Afghanistan and recovered weapons and ammunition. Officials labelled the fighters “Indian‑sponsored,” a charge New Delhi rejected. The incident underscores the volatile security situation on the Afghan‑Pakistani frontier.
In Southeast Asia, three Thai soldiers were injured by a landmine while patrolling a disputed stretch of the Thai‑Cambodian border days after a ceasefire ended the deadliest clashes in over a decade. The blast, which cost one soldier his foot, prompted Bangkok to lodge a protest and highlighted the fragility of the truce. ASEAN has sent observers to monitor the border, and defense ministers from both countries will meet later this month in Malaysia to reinforce the ceasefire.
Pacific Island Region Geopolitics
In the Pacific Islands, Solomon Islands Prime Minister Jeremiah Manele announced that 21 donor countries — including the United States, China and Taiwan — will not be invited to September’s Pacific Islands Forum leaders’ meeting. The decision came after Beijing pressed Honiara to exclude Taiwan and underscores the competition for influence in the Pacific. Opposition figures called it a “massive missed opportunity” to engage global donors, and U.S. officials expressed disappointment.
Upcoming Geopolitical Highlights (Aug 11–17, 2025)
1. U.S.–China Tariff Truce Deadline
A critical deadline looms on August 12, when “reciprocal” tariffs proposed by the U.S. may kick in unless a renewed 90‑day trade truce is agreed upon. This could substantially impact regional economies if tensions escalate.
2. Thailand–Cambodia Border Tensions
On August 9, three Thai soldiers were injured by a landmine along the contested Thailand–Cambodia border. Cambodia denies responsibility, but the incident risks undermining the fragile ceasefire in place.
3. India–China Border Talks
Scheduled for August 18 in New Delhi, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi will meet with Indian NSA Ajit Doval. These talks are part of ongoing boundary-related diplomacy and broader bilateral engagement.
4. India Welcomes U.S.–Russia Summit
On August 15, a summit in Alaska between U.S. President Trump and Russian President Putin is set to take place. India has expressed support, framing it as a positive effort toward peace.
Readings:
A Chinese Fentanyl Smuggling Network’s Footprints in Japan — Bellingcat