Asia Communique

India, Taiwan, Canada: Beware Hungary | Thailand‑Cambodia border flare‑up | Taiwan recall vote | Court Cancels VP Duterte Trial |

Weekend Edition – July 26, 2025

Why India, Taiwan, and Canada Should Keep Hungary at Arm’s Length

Hungary may wear the EU badge, but it no longer plays by the rules of a democratic alliance. For India, Taiwan, and Canada—three democracies on the frontlines of pushing back against authoritarian assertiveness—closer ties with Hungary could be a strategic liability, not an asset.

Let’s start with the obvious: Hungary has become China’s most reliable Trojan Horse in Europe. While other EU states have pushed back against Beijing’s aggression—on Taiwan, in the South China Sea, and through economic coercion—Hungary has consistently blocked EU resolutions condemning China, refused to back Taiwan’s international participation, and amplified Beijing’s narratives inside European institutions. Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s government has fully embraced the Belt and Road Initiative, and proudly hosts the Fudan University campus in Budapest—China’s first in Europe—opening the door to surveillance, propaganda, and elite influence.

For Taiwan, the message is clear: Hungary is no friend. It has actively stifled diplomatic space for Taiwan in Europe and stands opposed to the EU’s growing push for Taiwan’s inclusion in global conversations. In a moment when Taiwan is building momentum across Eastern and Northern Europe, Hungary is acting as Beijing’s gatekeeper, slamming the door shut.

Canada should be equally concerned. As Ottawa positions itself as a defender of democratic norms and counters foreign interference—particularly from China—Hungary’s role as a platform for Chinese and Russian disinformation undermines allied efforts. Hungary’s open embrace of authoritarian states makes it a destabilizing force within NATO, and a blocker of G7 cohesion, particularly on sanctions and strategic messaging. For Canada, Hungary is not a partner—it’s a risk vector.

And for India, the contradictions are impossible to ignore. New Delhi is slowly but surely building coalitions with France, Germany, Japan, the U.S., and others who back a rules-based Indo-Pacific. Hungary’s flagrant alignment with Beijing and Moscow directly weakens these very coalitions. Any visible Indian courtship of Hungary will be viewed with suspicion by Western capitals and could undermine India’s credibility in multilateral groupings like the Quad and G7 Outreach.

Let’s be blunt: Hungary is no longer a neutral actor—it is an enabler of authoritarian power projection in Europe. For India, Taiwan, and Canada to deepen ties with Budapest would be to reward illiberalism, fracture democratic consensus, and hand China and Russia yet another backchannel into the heart of their strategic alliances.

Thailand‑Cambodia border flare‑up

Heavy fighting returned to the Thailand–Cambodia border over the past two days. Thai and Cambodian forces traded heavy artillery fire along the disputed border near the 11th‑century Preah Vihear temple. Thailand’s foreign ministry said Bangkok prefers to resolve the issue through direct talks and not through outside mediation—spokesperson Nikorndej Balankura said the country wants to “continue to use the bilateral mechanism” to reduce tensions. The U.S., China and Malaysia offered to facilitate dialogue, but Thai officials reiterated that the border dispute should be settled bilaterally.

Cambodian leader Hun Sen accused Thailand of reversing a Malaysian‑brokered ceasefire agreement, saying both sides had initially agreed to a truce before Thailand changed its mind. The clashes have reignited nationalist sentiment in both countries and disrupted cross‑border trade. Military analysts note that the disputed land around the temple was awarded to Cambodia by the International Court of Justice in 1962, but the exact boundary remains contested.

Philippine Supreme Court voids impeachment of Vice‑President Sara Duterte

The Philippine Supreme Court declared unconstitutional a February vote by the lower house of Congress to impeach Vice‑President Sara Duterte. Lawmakers had accused Duterte of misusing funds and threatening to kill President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., the first lady and the House speaker. The court ruled that the impeachment violated safeguards against filing multiple complaints in a year.

Although the ruling does not clear Duterte of the underlying allegations, it prevents her removal and is widely viewed as bolstering her 2028 presidential ambitions. The justices emphasised their role in enforcing constitutional limits rather than absolving Duterte. The decision underscores the high stakes of Philippine politics ahead of the next electoral cycle.

Record rain and flood warnings in northern China

Northern China endured another bout of extreme weather. In Hebei province, Baoding received 448.7 mm (17.7 inches) of rain in 24 hours, triggering flash floods and power outages and forcing more than 19,000 people to evacuate. The rainfall set records and highlights how climate‑driven storms are stressing China’s aging flood defenses and disrupting industrial regions.

U.S. eases some Myanmar sanctions amid tariff dispute

The United States quietly removed sanctions on several allies of Myanmar’s ruling generals—KT Services & Logistics and founder Jonathan Myo Kyaw Thaung, MCM Group and owner Aung Hlaing Oo, Suntac Technologies and owner Sit Taing Aung, and businessman Tin Latt Min—saying the move was part of routine delistings. Human Rights Watch called the decision “extremely worrying” and noted that other sanctions against junta leaders remain.

Taiwan recall vote

Taiwan is in the midst of its largest‑ever recall election, an unprecedented bid to oust 24 lawmakers from the opposition Kuomintang (KMT). Civic groups spearheading the effort describe it as an “anti‑communist” movement: they accuse the KMT of being too close to Beijing, undermining defence spending and bringing chaos to parliament. The KMT says the recall is a malicious attack on democracy and insists its members are simply maintaining dialogue with China and overseeing the government. Polls opened at 8 a.m. and will close at 4 p.m. (0800 GMT), with results expected later in the evening.

The stakes are high. President Lai Ching‑te’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) won the presidency last year but lost its legislative majority, allowing the opposition to block budgets and delay defense spending. If enough KMT lawmakers are removed, by‑elections could restore the DPP’s majority. Recall thresholds are steep—turnout must exceed 25 % of eligible voters and recall votes must outnumber the votes the lawmaker originally received—but organisers hope widespread frustration with the KMT will tip the scales.

China’s influence looms large. Taipei has accused Beijing of “unprecedented” interference, noting that the Taiwan Affairs Office and Chinese state media have parroted KMT talking points. The recall campaign comes amid increasing Chinese military and diplomatic pressure on Taiwan. Lai has offered talks with Beijing but has been rebuffed; Chinese officials deride him as a separatist and warn that the vote is an attempt to consolidate pro‑independence power.

Outside Taiwan, reactions are muted but watchful. Washington has not issued a formal statement, though U.S. officials consistently emphasise support for Taiwan’s democratic processes and warn against interference. Regional allies such as Japan, South Korea and Australia have deepened ties with Taiwan and will be attentive to any shift in legislative balance. Beijing’s response will depend on turnout and margins: a successful recall could be portrayed by China as evidence that Taiwanese voters are dissatisfied with Lai’s government, while failure may embolden Taipei’s pro‑independence camp. Either way, the recall highlights the delicate balance Taiwan must strike between engaging China and safeguarding its democracy.

Li Qiang urges global AI cooperation

At the World Artificial Intelligence Conference in Shanghai, Chinese Premier Li Qiang proposed forming a world AI cooperation organisation, calling artificial intelligence a new engine for growth but warning that governance remains fragmented. He urged countries to coordinate development and security rules and to create a globally recognised AI framework. The three‑day conference comes amid escalating U.S.–China competition over advanced technologies. Washington has imposed export restrictions on AI chips and chipmaking gear, while China continues to make breakthroughs that have drawn U.S. scrutiny. Li highlighted constraints such as a lack of high‑end chips and talent exchange and called for breaking bottlenecks to enable open innovation.

Geopolitics delays CK Hutchison ports sale

Hong Kong conglomerate CK Hutchison’s $22.8 billion plan to sell most of its ports business to a consortium led by BlackRock faces delays, with a July 27 deadline likely to be extended amid U.S.–China tensions. The deal includes strategic Panama Canal terminals and has become a geopolitical flashpoint, drawing scrutiny from both Washington and Beijing.