Asia Communique

PLA Generals Fade from View at Victory Day Parade | Seoul seeks assurance of Xi Jinping’s APEC attendance | Seoul seeks assurance of Xi Jinping’s APEC attendance

Dear Readers,

U.S. and China reach a provisional TikTok deal

President Donald Trump announced that the U.S. and China have reached a new agreement that will allow TikTok to continue operating in the United States. Three sources told Reuters that the framework is broadly similar to a deal negotiated earlier in the year. Under the provisional arrangement, the video‑sharing app’s U.S. assets will be transferred to American owners while ByteDance retains a 19.9 % stake. The White House pushed its deadline for forcing a sale from 17 September to 16 December to give negotiators more time to complete the transaction.

Why it matters: The deal is meant to resolve months of tension over data security and national security. It comes as the U.S. presidential campaign heats up and as Washington and Beijing try to prevent a trade dispute from spiraling further. If consummated, U.S. investors would own and control the U.S. version of TikTok, helping the White House claim a win on protecting American user data while allowing ByteDance to maintain some interest. For Beijing, avoiding an outright ban on one of its most successful tech exports lessens the prospect of retaliation. Expect more wrangling over governance and data safeguards before any agreement is final.

South China Sea tensions flare as China blasts Philippine ships with water cannon

China’s coast guard said it fired water cannon at Philippine government vessels near the disputed Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea, accusing them of an “illegal” intrusion. One person was reported injured. Beijing says one of the Philippine ships rammed a Chinese vessel and that more than ten ships entered Chinese waters. Manila insists its vessels were on a humanitarian mission to support fishermen and says China’s actions amount to harassment. The incident follows Beijing’s announcement that it would turn the shoal into a national nature reserve.

Why it matters: The Scarborough Shoal sits inside the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone but has been effectively controlled by China since 2012. Turning the shoal into a nature reserve would lock in Chinese administration and test Manila’s resolve. The latest confrontation illustrates how quickly accidents can happen in this crowded waterway and comes as Washington and its allies increase patrols to assert freedom of navigation. Rising tensions could shape the agenda at next month’s APEC summit, where leaders including Xi Jinping and Donald Trump are expected to meet.

PLA Generals Fade from View at Victory Day Parade

When China staged its first Victory Day military parade in 2015, the symbolism was hard to miss. Dozens of generals marched shoulder-to-shoulder with the rank and file down Chang’an Avenue, their names broadcast as they saluted President Xi Jinping on Tiananmen’s rostrum. A similar spectacle played out at the 2019 National Day parade: nearly 90 generals announced by name, offering foreign observers a rare glimpse into the PLA’s leadership structure.

Fast forward to this year’s Victory Day parade, and the scene could not have been more different. Generals were absent. Instead, colonels and senior colonels led the formations. The announcer skipped over names altogether. Even the parade commander, traditionally a full general, was a lieutenant general this year — Han Shengyan, formerly of the Central Theater Command’s air force.

Why the downgrade? Analysts point to the anti-corruption campaign sweeping through the PLA. Over the past three years, Beijing has purged two defense ministers, several rocket force leaders, and most recently stripped four more generals of their National People’s Congress seats. Letting major generals front the parade would have been risky: if they were later investigated, the optics would be disastrous.

The changes also hint at something deeper. A Taiwanese analyst suggests the PLA is “flattening” its command-and-control structure — delegating authority downward and making its public face appear less top-heavy. At the same time, the absence of Politburo member and CMC vice-chair He Weidong, unseen since March, underscores how unsettled the leadership picture remains.

For outside observers, the parade once offered a roll-call of rising stars. This year, it signaled something else: a military in flux, caught between Xi’s drive for loyalty, the need to field modern hardware, and the shadow of corruption probes at the very top.

Chinese automaker Chery plots Hong Kong’s biggest IPO of the year

Chinese carmaker Chery Automobile is selling 297.4 million shares in an initial public offering on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to raise up to HK$9.15 billion (US$1.2 billion). The IPO is the city’s largest so far this year. Pricing will be set on 24 September with trading expected to start on 25 September. Chery said it will use 35 % of the proceeds for research and development in electric and smart vehicles.

Why it matters: Hong Kong’s IPO market has been sluggish in 2025. A successful listing by Chery would show that investor demand for EV‑related stocks remains strong despite weak sentiment around China’s property slump. Chery hopes to follow BYD and Geely in leveraging public markets to fund expansion into smart cars. The deal will also test how global investors view China’s automotive ambitions amid geopolitical tensions and supply‑chain realignments.

Singapore’s exports slump surprises analysts

Government data showed that Singapore’s non‑oil domestic exports fell 11.3 % in August from a year earlier—much worse than economists’ expectation of a 1 % increase. Exports to major markets including Indonesia, the United States and China slumped, while shipments to the European Union, Taiwan and South Korea rose modestly. Exports to the U.S. plunged 28.8 % after a 42.8 % decline in July. Authorities said tariffs and front‑loading of orders earlier in the year contributed to the downturn.

Why it matters: Singapore is a bellwether for global trade. The sharp drop suggests that the U.S.–China trade war is taking a toll on regional supply chains, particularly in electronics. Singapore’s economy grew faster than expected in the first half of the year by pulling orders forward to avoid U.S. tariffs, but officials now warn that growth will slow in the second half. The data provides an early warning for other Asian exporters facing similar headwinds.

Seoul seeks assurance of Xi Jinping’s APEC attendance

Ahead of a two‑day trip to Beijing, South Korean Foreign Minister Cho Hyun told reporters he would seek confirmation from Chinese officials that President Xi Jinping will attend the Asia‑Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit hosted by South Korea in late October. Cho said he would also ask for details of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un’s recent visit to Beijing. South Korea has invited both Xi and Donald Trump to the summit and hopes the meeting could open a channel for dialogue with North Korea.

Why it matters: Seoul’s effort to secure Xi’s attendance shows how hosting APEC has become a diplomatic balancing act. With U.S.–China rivalry intensifying, South Korea wants to demonstrate it can convene both leaders while also engaging Pyongyang. Xi’s presence would be seen as a sign that Beijing values regional economic cooperation despite rising tensions. Any bilateral meetings on the sidelines, especially between Trump and North Korean officials, could set the tone for peace talks.

Thank you for reading!