Asia Communique
China Brief: Xi’s Tribute to Hu Yaobang Amidst New Yonaguni Deployments and Quiet Hawaii Talks
Dear Readers,
U.S. Marines Turn Japan’s Yonaguni Island Into a First Island Chain Launchpad
U.S. Marines on Yonaguni Island
The U.S. Marine Corps has been steadily moving equipment through Kubura Port on Japan’s Yonaguni Island — the country’s westernmost territory just 110 km (70 miles) from Taiwan — signaling the island’s rising strategic value in Washington’s First Island Chain posture.
What began as a proof-of-concept logistics push in September during Resolute Dragon 2025 has evolved into back-to-back deployments. Marines offloaded 18 ISO containers, water supply systems, and a refrigeration unit at Camp Yonaguni over just two days — then cycled the containers back to Okinawa to test rapid shuttle logistics.
Last week, a second barge mission wrapped up, delivering humanitarian assistance and disaster response (HA/DR) gear. U.S. planners stress HA/DR as a primary driver for prepositioning equipment in the region — but the timing aligns with growing PLA surveillance near the islands, including a Chinese military drone that triggered a JASDF F-15 scramble over the weekend, first reported by CBS News.
Meanwhile, the Marines confirmed a major milestone: the first-ever Forward Arming and Refueling Point (FARP) established on Yonaguni during Joint Exercise 07 with the Japan Ground Self-Defense Force. CH-53E Super Stallions — supported en-route by KC-130Js — landed on the island to refuel, marking the farthest southwest Marine heavy-lift aviation has operated inside Japan.
“This evolution… served as a huge leap forward in our relations between the U.S. Marines and the JGSDF,”
— Maj. Patrick X. Kelly, HMH-462 XO
The island already has a port and runway infrastructure — Japanese media and Chinese analysts alike have noted upgrades designed to support F-35B deployments capable of dispersing across remote islands for survivability.
Xi Jinping’s Latest Speech: 5 Lessons From the Past
On November 20, President Xi Jinping led a high-profile symposium to mark the 110th birth anniversary of Hu Yaobang. For those who might need a quick history refresher, Hu was a major figure in the CCP—a former General Secretary known for pushing reform and rehabilitation in the post-Mao era.
Xi didn’t just offer a eulogy; he used the occasion to lay out a roadmap for today’s Communist Party officials. He called Hu a “long-tested and loyal communist fighter” and an “outstanding political worker.”
But the meat of the speech was Xi urging the current leadership to “learn from Hu Yaobang.” He broke this down into five specific vibes he wants to see in the Party right now:
1. Stick to your guns (Ideals & Beliefs) Xi praised Hu’s “tenacious revolutionary will.” The message here was clear: In a changing world, officials need to keep their “ideals firm” and stay loyal to the Party’s mission of Chinese modernization.
2. Keep it real (Seek Truth from Facts) This is a classic phrase in Chinese politics. Xi highlighted Hu’s ability to look at the actual situation rather than just following dogma. He wants officials to pursue truth and use practical theory to solve real-world problems.
3. Do the hard work (Reform & Innovation) Xi used a great metaphor here. He said officials need the spirit of “gnawing on hard bones” (meaning: tackling the toughest problems head-on). He wants the Party to be at the “forefront of the times” and not be afraid to shake things up to boost the economy.
4. Don’t forget the people (Public Service) Xi noted that Hu had a “deep affection” for the common people. The instruction to officials is to ensure their work actually results in a “sense of gain” and happiness for the public. Basically: do things that make people’s lives better.
5. Stay clean (Integrity) Finally, Xi brought up the ever-present topic of corruption. He held up Hu as a model of “righteousness” and demanded that leaders strictly follow anti-corruption rules. If you’re in charge, you need to lead by example and resist “unhealthy trends.”
The Bottom Line: Xi is using Hu Yaobang’s legacy to rally the troops. By framing Hu as the ultimate model of loyalty, reform, and integrity, Xi is telling his party exactly what “indomitable struggle” looks like for the next phase of China’s development.
U.S. and China Quietly Restart Maritime Security Talks in Hawaii
The U.S. and Chinese militarizes resumed working-level maritime security talks in Hawaii this week — a sign both sides are cautiously rebuilding military communication channels after months of tensions.
China’s navy said discussions from Nov. 18–20 were “frank and constructive,” noting that officials exchanged views on air and maritime safety and reviewed past encounters between their forces to reduce risks at sea.
The twice-yearly meetings — known as the Military Maritime Consultative Agreement (MMCA) talks — last convened in April, marking the first resumption of military dialogue under President Trump’s second term.
Beijing, however, used the talks to renew criticism of U.S. freedom-of-navigation operations in the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait, accusing Washington of “infringement and provocation” in what China claims as sovereign waters.
The renewed engagement comes as:
China intensifies air and naval deployments around Taiwan
The Pentagon presses for more transparency around China’s expanding nuclear and maritime arsenal
The U.S. seeks more direct commander-to-commander channels to avoid miscalculation
Last month, U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth voiced concerns to Chinese Defense Minister Dong Jun about PLA behavior around Taiwan and in disputed waters — a major flashpoint where close military intercepts have become more frequent.
For now, both governments appear willing to keep talking. But with maritime friction rising across the Western Pacific, communication itself has again become a form of crisis prevention.
Sino-Japanese Confrontation
Taiwan statement triggers trade war – Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi broke decades of strategic ambiguity by saying that a Chinese attack on Taiwan could threaten Japan’s survival. China responded by summoning Japan’s ambassador, suspending seafood imports and screenings of Japanese films and warning that Japanese intervention in Taiwan would bring a “crushing defeat reminiscent of World War II.” Beijing also advised its citizens not to travel to Japan. The episode has battered Japanese shares and underscores the volatility of the Taiwan Strait.
Japan’s stimulus gamble – Facing a recession and a diplomatic storm, Takaichi’s cabinet unveiled a ¥21.3 trillion ($135 billion) supplementary budget. The package includes subsidies for electricity and fuel, cash hand‑outs to families, abolition of the gasoline tax and higher income‑tax thresholds. Critics warn the spending could weaken the yen and stoke inflation; the currency has already fallen 6.7 % against the U.S. dollar since Takaichi became LDP leader. Breakingviews argues that the stimulus may backfire by prompting rate hikes, undermining the very relief it seeks.
Fujian carrier and 6th‑generation fighters – China’s third aircraft carrier Fujian conducted its first live‑force sea trials, launching J‑35, J‑15T and KJ‑600 aircraft using electromagnetic catapults. Satellite imagery indicated operations in the South China Sea. Chinese media also reported that prototypes of sixth‑generation fighters (dubbed J‑36 and J‑50) achieved new milestones, suggesting Beijing is racing the United States to field advanced stealth aircraft.
Exercise Malabar 2025 in Guam: A Forward Surge for the Taiwan Strait
From November 10-18, 2025, the four navies of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (the U.S., Australia, Japan and India) converged near Guam for Malabar 2025, conducting high-end maritime operations including anti-submarine warfare, surface strikes, aviation and interdiction drills.
Although not explicitly about Taiwan, the exercise’s scale, location and participants send a clear strategic signal: allied forces are practising combat readiness in the Western Pacific — close to the first island chain and inside range of a Taiwan contingency.
Key Take-Aways & Implications
1. Location matters
Guam is a U.S. territory with critical forward-bases (Andersen AFB, naval infrastructure) and lies deep in the Western Pacific theatre. Its use as a main drill ground underlines how these countries are practising “out-of-area” logistics, sustainment and joint maneuvering — skills essential in any Taiwan Strait crisis.
2. High-end warfighting readiness
Malabar 2025 focused on complex tasks: ASW, air defence, surface warfare and coordination across multiple services. For a Taiwan contingency, these capabilities matter because of the likely Chinese submarine and missile threat, the importance of controlling sea-lanes and maintaining air/sea superiority.
3. Interoperability among Quad navies
This exercise further binds the U.S., Japan, Australia and India to operate together. India’s inclusion — far from its traditional zone — opens possibilities for a broader regional response in a Taiwan scenario: for example, logistics support, regional chokepoint patrols, and stretching China’s resources across multiple axes.
4. Deter or shape China’s calculus
By practising in Guam and the Western Pacific, the Quad send a message to Beijing: allied forces can manoeuvre in forward areas near China’s maritime approaches. This contributes to shaping Chinese planning, raising costs for any coercive move against Taiwan by signaling robust allied readiness and presence.
5. Logistical and sustainment practice
Guam is a platform for long-range sustainment, replenishment, multi-domain operations — exactly the kind of forward staging needed in a Taiwan contingency. The ability to surge forces, maintain them at distance and coordinate multi-national assets is a core takeaway.
Why This Matters for Taiwan
Forward staging and insertion: In a Taiwan contingency, Allies will need forward bases and sea-lanes. These drills around Guam help validate that kind of footprint and capability.
Sea-lane control & ASW: The Taiwan scenario will revolve around submarine threats and maritime interdiction. Malabar’s ASW drills sharpen partner navies for that kind of fight.
Alliance logistics & readiness: Guam drills help prove the concept that the U.S. and partners can assemble, sustain and operate jointly far from home bases — critical if Taiwan is under threat.
Strategic signalling to China: The exercise amplifies pressure on China’s decision-makers, showing that allied maritime forces can deploy and integrate across the Pacific rim — raising the risk for Beijing if it chooses coercion.
A wider regional web: India’s involvement reminds that a Taiwan crisis wouldn’t be just U.S. vs China — it could trigger regional responses and diversification of allied options, complicating China’s calculus.
Watch-Points Going Forward
Will the Quad convert such exercises into forward-deployed maritime task forces in crisis?
How will China respond — more patrols, missile deployments, naval exercises near Taiwan?
Will logistics hubs like Guam and forward anchorages (e.g., in Okinawa, Japan’s southwestern islands) become contingency bases for Taiwan operations?
Will India’s role expand to include Indian Ocean–western Pacific linkages, tightening the strategic net around China?
How will the exercise feed into deterrence messaging — both publicly and in classified planning?
China’s Wedding Boom — Hope or Just Hype?
Shanghai’s INS Land, a nightlife hotspot packed with hip-hop clubs, has suddenly become a wedding venue. Artificial grass, themed stages, civil servants on standby — everything couples need to get married and party without ever leaving the city.
This unusual makeover reflects a surprise trend: China’s seeing more weddings again. New rules let couples register marriages anywhere in the country, not just in their hometown hukou location. That small bureaucratic shift has unleashed a wave of ceremonies in beaches, mountains — even at music festivals.
It seems to be working, at least on the surface. In the first nine months of 2025, China recorded 5.2 million marriages, up 405,000 from last year. State media is calling it a “youth-friendly” redesign of public services.
But the big question remains: Can a wedding boom turn around China’s demographic crisis?
Experts say the answer is complicated. China’s population is ageing fast, its workforce is shrinking, and the fertility rate is below one child per woman — far from the level needed to avoid long-term decline. Young people cite high living costs, unstable jobs, and the pressure of raising kids in a hyper-competitive society.
“Getting married is easier now,” one newlywed academic told us, “but having kids is the exhausting part.”
Still, local governments are pushing hard — from cash handouts for newlyweds to relationship “love classes” at universities. Some even want the legal marriage age lowered.
For now, places like Xinjiang’s Sayram Lake — where over 11,000 couples married this year — are cashing in on the destination-wedding boom. Couples who marry there get free lifetime entry to the scenic area — a clever romantic pitch.
So yes, people are saying “I do” in bigger numbers again. But whether that leads to babies — and the demographic bounce Beijing desperately wants — is still anyone’s guess.
Reads:
The New Soft-Power Imbalance — Foreign Affairs
Peril and Promise in the U.S.-China AI Race — Carnegie Endowment
China and India Are Trapped in a Loop — Tansen Sen