Asia Communique: Navigating a Multipolar Asia — Geopolitics Update
Xi Rallies SCO Leaders to Push New Global Governance Drive | India’s Tariff Move, SCO Optics Pressure Washington | Xi–Putin–Kim Axis: From Parades to Pledges |
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Today’s newsletter follows below.
China Pushes New Global Governance Drive as Xi Rallies SCO Leaders
At a regional security summit in Tianjin on Monday, Chinese President Xi Jinping called on Russia, India, and other Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) members to “leverage their collective economic influence” to reshape the global order amid escalating trade and geopolitical tensions.
Addressing more than 20 world leaders — including Russian President Vladimir Putin and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi — Xi urged participants to uphold an “orderly multipolar world”, one that promotes free trade, sovereign equality, and multilateralism.
“We should expand the scope of co-operation, make the most of each country’s unique strengths, and shoulder together the shared responsibility of promoting regional peace, stability, and prosperity,” Xi said.
The summit marks Beijing’s latest attempt to position itself as a pillar of global governance, directly challenging the US-led system. Xi unveiled a “global governance initiative” aimed at restructuring decision-making frameworks in international institutions — the fourth such Chinese framework after previous initiatives on development, security, and “civilization.”
A Counter-Narrative to Washington’s Dominance
China’s diplomatic messaging comes amid heightened tensions with the United States, particularly over tariffs, Taiwan, and the Ukraine war. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent dismissed the Tianjin gathering as “performative”, calling India and China “bad actors” for indirectly enabling Moscow’s war effort.
For Beijing, the optics matter. The summit’s timing coincides with the 80th anniversary of Japan’s defeat in the Second World War, which China plans to mark with a lavish military parade in Beijing attended by Putin, North Korea’s Kim Jong Un, and leaders from Iran, Myanmar, and Pakistan.
Analysts say Beijing is recasting historical narratives — amplifying China’s role in the Allied victory and downplaying US contributions — to strengthen its case for sovereignty over Taiwan and appeal to developing nations seeking an alternative to Western dominance.
India’s Dilemma Inside the SCO
New Delhi finds itself walking a strategic tightrope. While India participates in the SCO, Modi’s bilateral engagement with Xi was measured and transactional, focusing on border stability and trade complementarities rather than broader alignment.
Washington is watching closely. As the US tightens defense and technology cooperation with India under the Quad framework, India’s simultaneous participation in Chinese-led multilateral platforms raises questions about how far New Delhi can balance its competing partnerships.
Xi’s Global Ambitions and Taiwan Narrative
Beijing is also using the SCO summit and the WWII commemoration to reinforce its claims over Taiwan. Xi linked China’s sovereignty claims to wartime declarations — notably the Cairo and Potsdam Declarations — framing Taiwan’s return as part of the postwar settlement.
What’s new this year is China’s explicit connection between those wartime agreements and the UN’s 1971 recognition of Beijing — an attempt to bind international legitimacy to its claims.
However, this narrative collides with Washington’s stance, which cites the 1951 San Francisco Treaty leaving Taiwan’s status unresolved. The divergence underscores why Taiwan remains a flashpoint in any effort to rewrite global governance norms.
Why This Matters
Beijing’s moves are part of a long-term strategy:
Erode US-led institutions by promoting alternative governance frameworks.
Bind the Global South to Chinese economic and security initiatives.
Reinterpret history to legitimize Beijing’s positions on Taiwan and global leadership.
Project stability and multilateralism even while aligning closely with Moscow.
Yet Beijing faces limits. Its growing defense ties with Russia, military posturing around Taiwan, and alignment with countries like Iran and Myanmar risk alienating potential partners in the very multipolar system it seeks to build.
For Washington, this summit signals a pivot point: either reinforce alliances and economic frameworks in Asia or risk ceding narrative dominance to Beijing — particularly among developing nations.
India’s Tariff Offer and Modi’s SCO Optics Put Washington on the Back Foot
U.S. President Donald Trump continued to browbeat India over trade policy, posting on Truth Social that the relationship was “one‑sided” and claiming New Delhi had belatedly offered to cut tariffs on U.S. goods to zero. Trump’s outburst followed his decision to impose punitive duties of up to 50 % on Indian exports for continuing to buy Russian oil.
As if to underscore how India is widening its diplomatic options, Prime Minister Narendra Modi spent the week in Tianjin at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit. There he was photographed strolling hand‑in‑hand with Chinese leader Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin. The three leaders used the meeting to showcase solidarity against Western pressure: the SCO’s joint declaration condemned “trade coercion” — a clear rebuke to Washington’s tariff blitz. Xi even pitched a new economic order centred on the Global South.
The juxtaposition highlights the bind in U.S.–India relations. Trump’s tariffs are meant to force New Delhi to align with Washington on Ukraine, but they risk backfiring by encouraging India to deepen ties with China and Russia instead. Modi and Xi also agreed to treat their countries as partners rather than rivals and pledged to improve trade and investment. Neither the Indian embassy nor the Biden administration commented on Trump’s latest salvo, underscoring how both sides are trying to manage tensions quietly.
For Washington, the episode underscores the limits of economic coercion. Demanding zero tariffs while slapping 50 % duties may reinforce perceptions of American hypocrisy and push pivotal states like India toward alternative arrangements. A sustainable Indo‑Pacific strategy will require balancing pressure with incentives — and recognizing that middle powers are increasingly willing to hedge rather than choose sides.
Meanwhile, Lin Minwang, China's leading South Asia expert, made some interesting comments in an interview:
"Because India’s past understanding was that as long as India maintained its policy of containing China or pursued certain policies related to visiting China, the United States would always support it, forgive it, and tolerate it. This was India’s basic assumption. But suddenly, Indians realized that Trump didn’t care at all — whether India visited China or not, the U.S. was not going to be tolerant. Improving relations with China also didn’t matter much to the United States. So India quickly began adjusting its relations with Russia and China, which also included recalibrating its policies and stance on participation in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO)”
Xi–Putin–Kim axis: From parades to pledges
Ahead of the 80th anniversary of World War II’s end, Xi invited Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un to Beijing. The display—three leaders watching Chinese troops march—symbolized solidarity among nations facing Western sanctions. Xi warned against hegemonism and urged them to stand together. Analysts described the meeting as the formation of a new axis that could reshape security dynamics.
North Korea, under sanctions, has been exporting ballistic missiles to Russia; a May 7 test of multiple short‑range missiles, likely the types supplied to Moscow, flew up to 800 km. South Korea, Japan and the U.S. condemned the launch and coordinated responses. Earlier in August, Kim oversaw the firing of new air‑defense missiles and pledged to accelerate nuclear build‑up. Meanwhile, Russian forces have reportedly been aided by North Korean troops in Ukraine.
Analysis: The Xi–Putin–Kim triad underscores a convergence of interests among China, Russia and North Korea: each faces U.S. sanctions and views Washington’s alliances as threats. Their cooperation—from arms transfers to diplomatic coordination—complicates U.S. security planning. Washington’s deterrence strategy must account not only for China but for a networked adversarial bloc that can stretch U.S. resources across theaters.
China's V-Day gathering will start at 9 a.m. on September 3 at Tian'anmen Square.
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