Asia Communique — Special Edition

Experts tell Asia Communique: The U.S. stands to gain little from resuming nuclear tests — while rival nuclear powers could benefit far more

Dear Readers,

Just hours before meeting Xi, Trump posted on Truth Social that he had “instructed the Department of War to start testing our Nuclear Weapons on an equal basis” with other nations. He added, “That process will begin immediately.”

In subsequent comments aboard Air Force One he said other countries “seem to all be nuclear testing,” and that since the U.S. has the most nuclear weapons it should test as well. When reporters asked where the tests would occur, Trump replied, “It’ll be announced. We have test sites”

We should be wondering why Trump administration made the announcement in South Korea ahead of the meeting with Xi Jinping. It wasn’t a coincidence as the messaging was conceived as a signal to China and U.S. allies in the region. Beijing has been rapidly modernizing its nuclear capabilities without conducting outright new nuclear tests.

Trump’s statement followed Russia’s revelation, made by President Vladimir Putin just a day earlier, that it had tested a so‑called “super weapon” — a nuclear‑capable Poseidon drone designed to be detonated underwater, where it could generate a devastating tsunami.

Historical Context

The United States last detonated a nuclear weapon in 1992. Russia last conducted a nuclear test in 1990, and China in 1996. All three signed the 1996 Comprehensive Nuclear‑Test‑Ban Treaty (CTBT) but none have ratified it; nonetheless each has observed a moratorium. Only North Korea has exploded nuclear devices in this century—six tests between 2006 and 2017.

The moratorium has not halted tests of delivery systems. The U.S., Russia and China routinely test missiles that can carry nuclear warheads, and Russia recently tested its nuclear‑powered Burevestnik cruise missile and the Poseidon underwater drone. Russia emphasized these are not nuclear‑warhead tests.

Ambiguity and Interpretation

Trump’s post did not clarify whether he meant explosive testing—detonating nuclear warheads—or continuing missile and delivery‑system tests. Vice Admiral Richard Correll, nominated to lead U.S. Strategic Command, told senators he would not presume that the president’s words meant nuclear testing, noting that neither China nor Russia has conducted explosive tests. The White House declined to elaborate. Vice President JD Vance said simply that the post “speaks for itself.”

Asia Communique exclusively spoke to Mackenzie Knight-Boyle, a Senior Research Associate at the Federation of American Scientists in Washington D.C.

“First, it’s important to note that it’s unclear what President Trump meant by his post. The wording of “testing nuclear weapons” is commonly understood to refer to explosive nuclear testing, but other parts of his statement call into question that that’s what he meant. First and foremost, the Department of War would not be the entity responsible for conducting explosive nuclear testing—the Department of Energy (more specifically, the NNSA) would. Additionally, Trump said “because of other countries testing programs,” but no other country is conducting explosive testing. In fact, the only country that has conducted explosive tests since the 90s is North Korea (most recently in 2017),” Knight-Boyle told Asia Communique.

“But there is not a credible technical argument for resuming nuclear testing in the United States. The US has a sophisticated stockpile stewardship program that utilizes supercomputers, the immense amount of data that the US collected from its over 1,000 nuclear tests, and subcritical experiments to ensure the safety and reliability of the nuclear arsenal without needing explosive tests. The current NNSA administrator has stated that explosive nuclear testing is unnecessary to maintain the stockpile and even advised against it. Going a step further, resuming nuclear testing would harm the United States’s nuclear position. The US stands to gain very little from explosive testing, while other nuclear powers stand to gain quite a bit. Because of its head start, the US conducted significantly more explosive tests than any other country—with more sophisticated technology—and therefore locked in a significant advantage with the signing of the CTBT and testing moratoria in the 90s. Resuming nuclear testing would, to put it simply, allow Russia and China to catch up.” Knight-Boyle told Asia Communique.

“Despite the strong global norm against nuclear testing thanks to the CTBT, the observance of testing moratoria by the United States, Russia, and China is precarious and dependent largely on the actions of the other two. The United States never ratified the CTBT, China refuses to ratify it until the United States does, and Russia withdrew its ratification in 2023 to “reestablish parity” with the United States. And, all three maintain some level of readiness of their test sites. So a US return to nuclear testing would very likely result in Russia and China following suit, which could also very well lead to testing by India and Pakistan.” Knight-Boyle added.

Arms Control and Legal Constraints

Arms control experts quickly condemned the announcement. The Arms Control Association’s executive director Daryl Kimball said the United States has no technical, military or political reason to resume explosive testing and that doing so could take at least 36 months. He warned that resuming tests would trigger international opposition and potentially provoke other nations to follow suit, jeopardizing the global non‑proliferation regime. Kelsey Davenport of the Arms Control Association added that if any state tests now, it could “open the door” for others to develop or refine nuclear deterrents.

Under current law, the U.S. Energy Department—not the Pentagon—conducts nuclear tests. A Congressional Research Service report recently estimated that it would take 24–36 months to resume explosive testing at the Nevada Test Site. Trump’s post therefore raised questions about feasibility and authority.

International and Domestic Responses

Russia

The Kremlin said it was unaware that anyone was testing nuclear weapons and that Russia had received no notice from Washington about any policy change. Spokesman Dmitry Peskov stressed that Moscow’s recent tests of the Burevestnik and Poseidon systems were not nuclear‑weapon tests. He reiterated President Vladimir Putin’s long‑standing warning that if someone departs from the moratorium, Russia will act accordingly. Reuters noted that post‑Soviet Russia has never tested a nuclear device.

There are lingering questions over whether Russia’s reported underwater nuclear test actually worked as claimed. Satellite imagery from the test area has cast doubt on the success Putin touted.

China

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun called on the United States to fulfill its obligations under the CTBT and “earnestly suspend nuclear testing.”

“China hopes that the US side will earnestly abide by its obligations on the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty and its commitment to “pause nuclear tests”, take concrete actions to safeguard the international nuclear disarmament and nuclear non-proliferation regime, and safeguard global strategic balance and stability.” Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun said.

United Nations and Arms‑Control Advocates

U.N. Secretary‑General Antonio Guterres said current nuclear risks were already “alarmingly high”, urging the world not to forget the disastrous legacy of more than 2,000 nuclear tests. Arms control organizations stressed that 187 states, including all five nuclear‑weapon powers, have signed the CTBT.

U.S. Officials and Lawmakers

Senators and administration officials offered mixed reactions. Senator Mazie Hirono reminded Correll that Trump’s post explicitly mentioned nuclear testing Senate Armed Services Chair Ed Markey said the U.S. must not resume nuclear testing and warned of a new arms race. Nevada Senator Jacky Rosen pointed out that past tests left lasting contamination across millions of acres and vowed to oppose the directive.

What It Means & Next Steps

Why would Trump move to resume nuclear testing? The logic lies in deterrence and signaling. By announcing a return to testing, the Trump administration was sending a message to Beijing and Moscow that Washington is willing to rethink long-standing nuclear restraints — and, if necessary, the potential use of nuclear force. It also served as reassurance to Asian allies — including Taiwan — that the U.S. is still prepared to underwrite the regional security order.

But the strategic payoff is thin. The move destabilizes the existing nuclear framework and effectively grants Russia and China political cover to begin testing of their own. It also opens the door for India and Pakistan to restart tests in South Asia.

The age of nuclear restraint is ending — and a new nuclear era is beginning.