Today is slightly different. You are going to be invited to a party that you never got an invitation for, but somehow still find yourself at. We’ve been at the host’s house for a while, but no one seems to remember where they disappeared. You’re welcome to enjoy the snacks and talk to someone next to you — someone you may even have some history with.
It’s the multipolarity party.
Without actively advocating for multipolarity in geopolitics, it is quite evident by now — as theory would dictate — that geopolitical instability is baked into the concept. As game theory reminds us, rational actors in a multipolar world — both adversaries and friends — are merely maximizing their own interests.
Multipolarity works best if you picture it as a party where no one controls the music anymore. The United States used to be the only DJ, setting the playlist and deciding when the food was served. That was unipolarity. Then China showed up with its own speakers and started playing a competing set. That was bipolarity. Gone are those days — welcome to the multipolarity party.
When the host of a party decides to address their domestic dispute with their partner after inviting 25 guests into their home, you’d expect the guests to begin arranging their own entertainment. But strangely, the result of the host’s absence is guests competing for attention with atrocious humor. Trust me — it’s about to get a lot worse.
So when you read headlines asking, “Why did X or Y get together right now?” it doesn’t mean they are in a long-term happy marriage as an alliance. Rather, it’s more like a one-night stand — exhilarating, exciting, but hardly permanent.
We have strange bedfellows coming together, much like a party whose guest list was drawn up without much thought — because the ultimate purpose was something else: a party to end all parties. Multipolarity is like that party that was supposed to start on time but never does, with no determined guest list.
I am no one to throw cold water on an idea that many Middle Powers love — after all, it strengthens their bargaining hand. But the consequences of their choices come prepared to bear fruit. And China? Well, it mentioned an after-party — if you can really escape this one. We’ll see about that.
Take the surprise announcement: a strategic mutual defense pact between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan. When asked whether the pact would commit Pakistan to provide a nuclear umbrella to Saudi Arabia, a Pakistani official replied: “This is a comprehensive defensive agreement that encompasses all military means.”
But I’m not convinced that Islamabad would ever use its nukes to defend Riyadh. The logic doesn’t hold. Nuclear arsenals are for the survival of the state. The U.S. may have made expansive commitments to defend allies during a nuclear attack — but Islamabad isn’t in that boat. Pakistan’s nukes are for Pakistan.
Asked about the agreement, a Saudi official said it was the culmination of years of discussion. Convenient, isn’t it? But countries play nasty tricks when needed — just like at a party, when you get back at a friend with your favorite “leak the secrets” trick.
Everybody seems to be in the business of defending each other, or at least offering some solace in the chaos of our world. Australia signed a Mutual Defense Treaty with Papua New Guinea, promising to protect PNG with the good Aussie heart.
Turkey and Egypt, long-time rivals, have agreed to co-produce UAVs and hold naval drills. Sure — why not? Because no one’s watching, right?
It’s peak bonanza time for those who are single or have happily accepted their fate of being perpetually solo. You were invited by the host because they like your youth and your choices, since they’re tired of all their other guests. But the host knows your propensity for hitting on other people’s wives, so — strangely — you need to be kept in check.
Being single — or fancier, being multipolar — is very nice, but it comes with the consequences of not knowing where you stand or where you sit. It’s fun for a while, but over the long run people may not remember what you stand for unless you offer a plan backed by monetary compensation. Otherwise, everyone just assumes you’re a freeloader.
The one good thing for you is that people think you’re funny. So it doesn’t matter that you haven’t bought that house or made millions from a start-up — you’ve still got great stories to tell. But this single person is committed to being alone. The elixir of loneliness is too strong at times.
Friend, we are getting distracted again from the new face that just walked into the party. Let’s focus.
But all of this is happening not just because the host is missing, but because there is the potential for an after-party. That’s right — the grand after-party in Beijing, the escape from the party you don’t even remember being invited to in the first place.
Everyone remembers how it started, but no one has any idea how this party ends — or if it even does. Everyone reassures each other there will be a grand finale, and then everybody will get to go home. But strangely, this party won’t end so easily. The after-party is just getting started, and you wish the sweating from all the dancing would stop — but you like the cheap thrills, don’t you?
The host may or may not come back.
I’ll see myself out now.